Quick Hitters – UNC vs. Auburn (NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16)

Quick Hitters from North Carolina’s 97-80 season-ending loss to Auburn on Friday evening in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.

Highlights:

• What a fun season it’s been. This team really took us on a ride; rounding into form by winning 17 out of 19 games prior to this loss. That streak lead to a shared ACC regular season championship. The only two losses in those 19 games were to fellow one seeds Duke and Virginia.
• The abrupt and harsh ending that the NCAA Tournament delivers is always jarring. The unexpected loss will put a sour taste in the mouth of Tar Heel fans for some time. Seeing Kenny Williams on the sideline in tears after checking out for the final time is one of the most heartbreaking images you’ll ever see.
• Who would have thought that the unheralded class of Kenny Williams and Luke Maye would wind up as one of the most accomplished classes in the history of North Carolina basketball? But that’s where we find ourselves. This is a credit to the coaching staff. It’s high time that the college basketball world begins to fully appreciate Roy Williams for the coach that he is.

Kenny – Cam – Luke

Thank you 🙏 pic.twitter.com/1yNKL29Yhj

— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 30, 2019

• While not as talented as the 2012 team, the external injury circumstances that led to that teams’ demise seem to have struck again this year at just the wrong time in the form of Nassir Little and Cam Johnson’s illness, Coby White’s tweaked ankle, and Kenny Williams’ hamstring.

• At the same time, those are excuses and take away from Auburn’s three-point barrage in the second half. Fully healthy or not, Carolina simply didn’t have the defensive answers to slow down what the Tigers did after halftime.
• Going back to the illnesses / injuries, it was clear that Little and Johnson were not themselves on Friday night. Little did not have his usual otherworldly explosion to the rim – he was blocked twice on dunks that would never have happened on a normal night. Johnson, will still tying for the team lead in scoring and having three steals, seemed a step behind all night. After tweaking his ankle five minutes before halftime, Coby White stayed in the game but didn’t possess his usual blow-by capabilities.

After making all 35 of his dunks this season, Nas Little is 0-2 on dunks tonight.

— Adrian Atkinson (@FreeportKid) March 30, 2019

• By hitting two three-pointers in his final game, Cam Johnson finished the season with 96, the second most in a single season in Carolina history. What a pick-up he was for Roy Williams’ club over the previous two years. With all due respect to Pittsburgh and their program, Johnson is a Tar Heel.
• The Tar Heels finish the season with 312 made three-pointers as a team, the most in program history for a single season.
• Unfortunately, the story on this night was Auburn’s three-point shooting. After Carolina did a reasonable job guarding deep shots in the first half, the Tigers exploded for 12 threes after halftime (on just 18 attempts).
• Coming into the game, rebounding appeared to be a plus for the Tar Heels, while three-point shooting was a plus for the Tigers. Curiously, Auburn matched Carolina in rebounds in the first half (21) while Carolina matched Auburn in threes in the first half (five).
• With many players struggling to make baskets, it was great to see Kenny Williams shoot well in his final collegiate game. The senior finished with 10 points, including hitting two threes. The Tar Heels will struggle to replace his defensive grit and determination next season.
• Hard to believe but Luke Maye finishes his career with the 10^th most rebounds in Carolina history (942). He also recorded 377 rebounds this season, the seventh most in a single season in the Tar Heel record book. Maye is the only player in program history to have two entries in the single-season top 10 rebounding list. Maye finishes his career tied with Kris Lang for 39^th on the all-time Carolina scoring list with 1392 points.

• After dominating their first two NCAA Tournament opponents on the glass, Carolina could not take advantage of a poor rebounding Auburn team, only holding a 40-36 advantage in that category.
• What contrasting styles between the North Carolina / Auburn game and the Texas Tech / Michigan game from Thursday night. The Heels and Tigers had combined for 14 points just 1:45 into the game. The Red Raiders and Wolverines took 10:39 to achieve the same.
• Other than back-to-back ill-advised shots around the 6:00 mark, when Carolina seemed poised to make a last push, Brandon Robinson had another solid showing. He finished with nine points, hit two threes, grabbed four rebounds, had three assists, and zero turnovers (against a team build to force them). Robinson’s continued development over the summer will be an important key to Carolina’s success in 2019-20.

• Carolina didn’t play a great first half, but did enough to put themselves in position to take over in the second half (similar to the Iona game). However, a 14-0 run from Auburn that spanned the end of the first half and beginning of the second half gave the Tigers a lead they would never relinquish. The Heels never again got any closer than six.
• The part of the game that you hate to see: Auburn’s Chuma Okeke suffered a non-contact injury to his left knee with 8:08 left in the game. Okeke’s knee buckled as he drove to the basket. While he eventually hobbled off the court under his own power, the injury had the appearance of an ACL issue. Best wishes to Okeke in his recovery.

Roy Williams, Kenny Williams, Luke Maye post-game press conference:

While there will sadly be no more Quick Hitters this season, stay tuned throughout the off-season for updates on recruiting decisions, potential transfers, NBA early entry decisions, roster composition for 2019-20, and more.

On a personal note, thanks so much for continuing to read my work. I love getting to write about North Carolina basketball and would do it just for myself, but it’s an honor to do it for others as well. I’m so thankful for everyone who reaches out to say how much they enjoy reading. Your kindness is overwhelming.

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Quick Hitters – UNC vs. Washington (NCAA Tournament – 2nd Round)

Quick Hitters from North Carolina’s 81-59 win over Washington on Sunday afternoon in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Highlights:

• The Tar Heels advance to the Sweet 16 for the 29^th time in program history; the most all-time. While a Sweet 16 appearance is not the ultimate goal, let’s keep it in perspective: There are only 16 of the 353 D1 men’s basketball teams still playing and Carolina is one of them. That never gets old. See for yourself:

• Cameron Johnson made three more three-pointers to run his season total to 94. That ties him with Marcus Paige (2014-15) for the third most in a single season in Carolina history. In second place is Shammond Williams with 95.
• Luke Maye just keeps piling up career accolades. Against Washington, Maye set NCAA Tournament career highs in both points (20) and rebounds (14). His 20 points move him into 40^th on the all-time Carolina scoring list (1379). His 14 rebounds move him into 11^th on the all-time Carolina rebounding list (935). If Maye grabs seven rebounds against Auburn, he’ll move past Eric Montross into 10^th.
• Wrap your brain around this: Luke Maye is the only person in program history to have two entries on the Carolina single season top ten rebounding list. Maye now has 370 rebounds this season; ninth-most in a single season for a Tar Heel. The next person Maye would pass on that list is…himself from last season. Depending on how far the Heels go in the NCAA Tournament, Maye has a shot at recording just the second 400 rebound season in Carolina history (Brice Johnson – 416 in 2015-16).
• The Tar Heels have been dominant on the boards thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Iona? Doubled them up (52-26). Washington? Doubled them up as well (48-24). That’s a total of 100 rebounds for Carolina vs. just 50 for their opponents.
• A couple scary injury moments in this one. Garrison Brooks took an elbow to the mouth in the first half, which damaged two of his teeth and required stitches. Brooks missed the rest of the first half while being attended to, but came back out and had a solid second half. Not coincidentally, thanks to Brooks’ steady defense, his first half absence was the only point at which it seemed like Washington could potentially make a run.

We tougher than most where I’m from #334

— Gee (@__garro) March 24, 2019

• The other injury occurred in the opening moments of the second half when Kenny Williams got a steal on Washington’s first possession. Unfortunately, he appeared to tweak his left hamstring. After being evaluated, Williams eventually returned to the game. Thankfully he has several days to recover before playing Auburn on Friday night.
• Don’t look now, but Nassir Little is rising (#NassirRising). With 19 points against Iona and 20 against Washington, he has his highest two game scoring output of his Tar Heel career. There was a stretch in the second half when he scored 11 straight for Carolina, including a monster block.

• Coby White broke out of his shooting slump early and often. He hit 4-for-5 from three in the first 11 minutes of the game. White finished with 17 points, six rebounds, two assists, a steal and several drives to the hoop against a defense geared at “stopping three-pointers and layups”.

• White wasn’t the only player to shoot better from deep. As a team the Tar Heels shot 9-for-21 (42.9 percent) from three, the best percentage since playing Wake Forest on February 16.
• As per usual, Carolina played great zone offense, sharing the ball and operating out of the opening at the free throw line. Quietly, Cam Johnson had seven assists and zero turnovers. This was the most assists he’s had as a Tar Heel and tied his career high.
• Once or twice a game, Carolina will execute a picture-perfect fast break. With 11:20 to go before halftime, Nassir Little grabbed a rebound, threw a long outlet pass to Cameron Johnson, who hit Brandon Robinson for the lay-up.
• This Tar Heel team is really difficult to guard because the scoring comes from so many different players and in so many different ways. In five of the last six games, at least four Tar Heels scored in double figures.
• Washington scored the first bucket of the second half to cut the Carolina lead to five. From there, the Heels went on a 13-0 run over the next 4:30 to push the lead to 18. Washington would never again get within single digits. That is how an experienced team closes an NCAA Tournament game.

Roy Williams, Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson postgame press conference:

Remember to check in for Quick Hitters after every North Carolina basketball game. Next up is the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament against Auburn on Friday, March 29. Tip is at 7:29ET on TBS.

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Quick Hitters – UNC vs. Iona (NCAA Tournament – 1st Round)

Quick Hitters from North Carolina’s 88-73 win over Iona on Friday night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Highlights:

• With Luke Maye’s 16 points tonight, three different Tar Heels have scored 500 points this year (Cam Johnson – 580, Coby White – 530, Maye – 502). That’s happened seven previous times in program history. Those seasons each worked out pretty well: 3 National Championships (1992-93, 2008-09, 2016-17), 1 National Runner-Up (1980-81), 2 Final Fours (1994-95, 1997-98), and 1 Elite Eight (1986-87).
• Roy Williams is now 29-0 all-time in the 1^st Round of the NCAA Tournament.

STILL#CarolinaSZN | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/3KoZALdEsB

— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 23, 2019

• Cam Johnson has made 91 three-pointers this season. He is just the fifth Tar Heel to hit 90 threes in a single season. Justin Jackson (105), Shammond Williams (95), Marcus Paige (94), and Joel Berry (93) are the other four.

Tar Heels three? WET! 💦#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/dUOiBPyw9J

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 23, 2019

• Coby White now has one or fewer turnovers in four of the last five games. He had achieved this just three times in his 28 games prior.

More of this please and thank you pic.twitter.com/vqpWbCwGn4

— chris (@dadgumboxscores) March 23, 2019

• At halftime, both teams had 14 defensive rebounds. The difference was that Carolina also had 14 offensive rebounds to Iona’s two. The Gaels only managed 10 more rebounds the rest of the game, none of which were offensive. Overall, Carolina doubled up Iona on the glass 52-26 and had 25 second chance points to the Gaels’ three.
• Interestingly, no Tar Heel had double-digit rebounds, but all five starters had between six and nine.
• This projected to be a high-scoring game with both teams in the top-50 in tempo according to KenPom. However, Iona decided to slow the game down and try to take Carolina out of transition. It worked in the first half with the Heels only scoring two fast break points in that stretch.
• A big part of why Iona’s plan worked is that they hit 10 three-pointers in the first half while Carolina struggled to run offense against the Gaels’ match-up zone. The second half, however, was a different story. The Gaels hit their second three-pointer of the second half, before missing their next 12 by which point the Heels were up by 18.
• It’s always a question how freshmen will respond to their first NCAA Tournament game. While most of the team was struggling in the first half, it was Coby White and Nassir Little who led the way offensively. White scored eight of the team’s first 12. Nassir Little picked up his second foul with 8:49 left before halftime, but stayed in the game and proceeded to score Carolina’s next three buckets. Little finished second on the team in scoring with 19 (behind Johnson’s 21) on an efficient 9-for-13 shooting.

Nassir’s 1️⃣9️⃣pts is the most pts scored by a Carolina freshman in the NCAAT since @hbarnes 2️⃣0️⃣pts against Marquette in the 2011 Sweet 16 #CarolinaSZN | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/UP4lMHRq37

— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 23, 2019

• While being less of a factor than his classmates, Leaky Black saw his first game action since spraining his ankle on January 29 against Georgia Tech. He secured three rebounds in the last four minutes of the first half and played well other than a turnover in the closing seconds before halftime.
• The seniors were the primary culprits of the first-half woes. The three combined to shoot 6-for-22, including 1-for-8 from three point range. But then the second half happened. After halftime, Carolina went on an 11-3 run to grab a 44-41 lead. All 11 of those points were scored by the senior trio, who shot a combined 10-for-15 (4-for-6 from deep) in the second half. After the 11-3 run, Iona scored the next two points before the Heels reeled off a backbreaking 19-4 run to essentially put the game out of reach.
• It was another balanced scoring night for the Tar Heels, with five Tar Heels in double figures and Kenny Williams chipping in eight.
• Speaking of Kenny Williams, keep an eye on his right knee. He checked out of the game with just a couple minutes remaining and had the training staff check him out.

Good shot fake by Kenny Williams and he knocks down the 3 pic.twitter.com/8cstmqdVGQ

— chris (@dadgumboxscores) March 23, 2019

• The second round will be an interesting match-up against Washington, whose head coach, Mike Hopkins, was a long-time Syracuse assistant and runs Jim Boeheim’s vaunted 2-3 zone defense. It’s worth noting that since Syracuse came to the ACC, the Tar Heels are 8-1 against the Orange (the only loss coming in the teams’ first ACC match-up). In those games, the Tar Heels have averaged 20 assists per game and assisted on 69.2 percent of made field goals. In the three most recent meetings, those numbers jump to 21.3 assists per game, while assisting on an absurd 81.0 percent of made field goals.

Roy Williams, Nassir Little, Cameron Johnson postgame press conference:

Remember to check in for Quick Hitters after every North Carolina basketball game. Next up is the second round of the NCAA Tournament against Washington on Sunday, March 24. Tip is approximately 2:40ET (following Iowa/Tennessee) on CBS.

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The Path To Houston (Glory), Part 6

We made it to “Part 6” of this column, and that’s great news because it means the Tar Heels are in the national championship game! Standing between Carolina and a sixth national championship are Jay Wright and the Villanova Wildcats. What do you need to know heading into the game? Read on to find out.

National Championship: Villanova

• 34-5 (16-2)
• 1st in the Big East
• Stat Leaders (of contributing players)
  • Points: Josh Hart – 15.5
  • Assists: Ryan Arcidiacono – 4.3
  • FG% (min. 100 attempts): Daniel Ochefu – 62.3
  • Rebounds: Daniel Ochefu – 7.6
  • Steals: Ryan Arcidiacono – 1.36
  • Blocks: Daniel Ochefu – 1.53
  • Minutes: Ryan Arcidiacono – 31.9

Previous NCAA Tournament Meetings Games

The 2016 National Championship game will mark the 7^th time UNC and Villanova have played in the NCAA Tournament. In the previous 6, Carolina is 5-1, only losing in the 1985 Elite 8. Here are all the previous games, rounds, and results:

1. 1982, Elite 8, UNC 70 – Villanova 60
2. 1985, Elite 8, Villanova 56 – UNC 44
3. 1991, 2^nd Round, UNC 84 – Villanova 69
4. 2005, Sweet 16, UNC 67 – Villanova 66
5. 2009, Final Four, UNC 83 – Villanova 69
6. 2013, 1^st Round, UNC 78 – Villanova 71
7. 2016, National Championship, ???

Though these games are listed in chronological order, upon closer inspection, you might notice an interesting tidbit: UNC has beaten Villanova in every round of the NCAA Tournament. Every round but one. The National Championship. Time to rectify that omission.

Game Notes

• This game has all the makings of an incredible title clash. Villanova and North Carolina come into the game ranked number one and two respectively in the KenPom Rankings. They also are number one and two in adjusted offensive efficiency, with the Tar Heels leading in this category.
• As you mentally prepare for this game, the UNC opponent to most similarly compare Villanova to would have to be Virginia, who was also top 10 this season in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
• Carolina’s overwhelming advantage should be on the backboards where the Tar Heels have a 40.6% offensive rebounding rate and a 69.8% defensive rebounding rate to Villanova’s 28.6% and 29.0%.
• Hard to believe, but Roy Williams would surpass Dean Smith in number of national championships with a win (3 for Roy, 2 for Dean).
• Despite being undersized, Villanova has limited the productivity of their opponent’s big men. Perry Ellis of Kansas, for example, was held to 4 points in the Elite 8. As we know the Tar Heel inside attack should prove a more formidable adversary. It will be interesting to see if and how Villanova can slow down Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, and Isaiah Hicks.
• Kris Jenkins connection. 2 Tar Heels have connections to Villanova 4-man Kris Jenkins. Brice Johnson played on a youth team with Jenkins in a picture that has been circulating this past week:

The other connection is an even deeper level. Nate Britt and Jenkins are legally brothers because the Britt family became Jenkins’ legal guardian in 2007 after some family changes for the Jenkins family. Britt’s parents and sister will be at Monday’s national championship game and have vowed to remain neutral, knowing that, regardless of the outcome, they will have a son who ends the night as national champion and one who ends the night coming up just short.

The Record Book

• Brice Johnson currently has 408 rebounds this season – a Tar Heel single season record. With 5 rebounds in the national championship game he would move into 10^th place on the ACC single season rebounds leaderboard. Interestingly, he would be the only player in the 2000s to land on this list. In fact, other than Tim Duncan’s 457 rebounds in 1997, the other most recent entry in the top 10 is from 1974 (Len Elmore with 412).
• With 1 more rebound, Brice Johnson will be the #5 career rebounder in Tar Heel history. He is currently tied with Antawn Jamison.
• Donald Williams holds the current UNC career record for made 3s in the NCAA Tournament with 38. Marcus Paige currently sits at 35.
• Also, on the Marcus Paige made 3 pointers front – he is already #1 in career made 3 pointers for UNC with 295. With a big night in his final college game, Paige could be the first Tar Heel to ever have 300 for his career.

Villanova Starters

Player	Ht	Wt	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TPG	SPG	BPG
Jalen Brunson	6’2.5”	199	24.0	9.7	1.8	2.6	45.5	38.1	77.9	1.85	0.72	0.0
Ryan Arcidiacono	6’3”	195	31.9	12.4	2.9	4.3	43.9	38.9	83.3	1.51	1.36	0.03
Josh Hart	6’5”	205	31.2	15.5	6.7	1.9	51.5	35.8	75.2	1.64	1.15	0.23
Kris Jenkins	6’6”	240	28.5	13.6	3.9	2.2	45.6	38.4	85.3	1.26	0.77	0.41
Daniel Ochefu	6’11”	245	23.1	10.1	7.6	1.7	62.3	0.0	68.8	1.33	0.81	1.53

Villanova Key Reserves

Player	Ht	Wt	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TPG	SPG	BPG
Phil Booth	6’3”	185	21.8	6.7	2.1	2.2	35.3	30.6	86.6	1.44	0.74	0.10
Mikal Bridges	6’7”	191	20.5	6.5	3.2	0.9	51.8	29.9	78.7	0.62	1.08	0.64
Darryl Reynolds	6’8”	225	17.3	3.7	4.6	0.4	64.9	0.0	72.3	0.72	0.41	0.54

The Numbers

	North Carolina	Villanova
KenPom Rank	2	1
Points per game	83.0	70.1
Adj. Offensive Efficiency (Rank)	123.7 (1st)	122.0 (2nd)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Rank)	95.2 (23rd)	91.9 (6th)
Tempo (Rank)	71.3 (64th)	66.7 (284th)
Field Goal%	48.2	42.6
2P FG%	54.4	57.3
3P FG%	31.9	35.9
3PA%	26.7	43.0
FT%	74.8	78.2
FT Rate	32.5%	34.1%
RPG	40.7	35.2
Offensive Reb Rate	40.6%	28.6%
Defensive Reb Rate	69.8%	29.0%
APG	17.8	16.2
BPG	4.5	3.3
SPG	6.8	6.7
TPG	10.8	12.2
TO Rate	15.3%	16.3%

3 X-Factors:

1. The backcourt (Berry, Paige, Jackson, Pinson, Britt) has done a marvelous job taking care of the ball in the tournament. Can they continue to do so against Villanova’s swarming defense. This will be all-important because the advantage on the interior is not an advantage if the guards can’t make entry passes.
2. Isaiah Hicks’ foul trouble. With Villanova employing the use of a stretch 4, Hicks’ mobility will be important. If he can stay out of foul trouble (and therefore on the court), he could have an incredibly productive game.
3. UNC’s backcourt & Nova’s frontcourt. All the national media attention for Villanova is on their backcourt and for North Carolina is on their frontcourt. This shapes up very similarly to the sweet 16 against Indiana. While UNC’s 3 point shooting is a statistical weakness, any combination of Paige, Berry, Britt, and Jackson could have a solid night from deep. You might recall Paige’s 3 point barrage to start the Indiana game. Similarly, don’t sleep on Villanova’s Daniel Ochefu (similar to Indiana’s Thomas Bryant). While the lone inside scoring threat, Ochefu could have a big game inside, although he has been hampered by a bum ankle.

Main Key to the Game for the Tar Heels:

You guessed it: exploit the size advantage in the paint. As has been the case all tournament long, UNC will have a decided frontcourt size advantage. On offense this means pounding the ball into the paint and continuing to offensively rebound around 50% of the misses. On the defensive end, this means playing tight defense without fouling and rebounding at the normal clip.

 

The Path To Houston (Glory), Part 5

Well, we can’t call this column “The Path To Houston” anymore. Why? Because the Tar Heels have made it to the Final Four! So today (and Monday if all goes well), we’ll now call this column “The Path To Houston (Glory), Part 5”. For the second game in a row, the Tar Heels will match up for the third time this season with an ACC foe: the 10^th-seeded Syracuse Orange. At this point, however, you can throw the seeds out the window because there are only 4 teams left playing, and they are all playing at an extremely high level. Here’s what you need to know for Saturday night’s match-up.

Final Four: Syracuse

• 23-13 (9-9)
• 10^th in ACC
• Stat Leaders (of contributing players)
  • Points: Michael Gbinije – 17.6
  • Assists: Michael Gbinije – 4.4
  • FG%: DaJuan Coleman – 54.1
  • Rebounds: Tyler Roberson – 8.4
  • Steals: Michael Gbinije – 2.0
  • Blocks: Tyler Lydon – 1.8
  • Minutes: Michael Gbinije – 37.9

Previous 2015-16 Games

• Game 1 – January 9. @ Syracuse. 84-73 UNC. This was Boeheim’s first game back from suspension, was a home game for the Orange, and the Tar Heels had never gone 4-0 under Coach Williams to start ACC play. It had all the makings of the Saints first game back in the SuperDome after Hurricane Katrina, in which the Falcons didn’t stand a chance. The game was tied at 58 with 6:31 to go, and was only a 2-point game (66-64) with 3:19 to go. The Tar Heels then went on a 18-9 over those final minutes to win by 11. The key was not shooting over the vaunted Orange zone(18.8 3PT%), but attacking it from the inside. Brice Johnson had a career-high 8 assists (Paige also had 8 assists), 5 of which came in the final 8:13 of the game as he picked apart the zone from the high post. 7 of the 8 were for dunks or layups. 4 went to Isaiah Hicks who finished the night with 21 points.
• Game 2 – Febrauary 29. Senior Night. @ North Carolina. 75-70 UNC. On this night, Syracuse showed a more determined effort to stop the ball from getting into the middle of the zone. Marcus Paige once again had 8 assists against the Orange. Brice Johnson had 14 & 10 for just another, ho-hum *yawn* double-double. Tar Heels led by as many as 13 in the 2^nd They never trailed, but Syracuse cut the lead to 3 several times within the last 7 minutes, including :07 to go. It was Joel Berry who sent his senior teammates to a senior night victory with two free throws to ice it.

Game Notes

• Depth – Syracuse’s doesn’t have much. Their depth is very similar to that of Duke. 5 players average 30+ minutes a game with 2 other players averaging 17 and 10 minutes a game. Despite the lack of depth, the zone helps the Orange stay out of foul trouble. At the same time, UNC’s depth and pace should wear out the thin Syracuse bench.
• 337 – Syracuse’s rank in defensive rebounding percentage. 3 – North Carolina’s rank in offensive rebounding percentage. The Tar Heels must exploit this advantage.
• In the last 6 NCAA Tournament games as NRG Stadium in Houston (Where the Final Four will be played), the competing teams shot a combined 27.6% from 3. Guess who relies on that shot? Syracuse, Oklahoma, and Villanova. Guess who doesn’t rely on that shot? The North Carolina men’s basketball team. Advantage Tar Heels.

The Record Book

• Brice Johnson needs 1 rebound to set the Carolina record for most rebounds in a season. He currently has 399 and is tied with Tyler Hansbrough. This would also make Brice the only player in program history with 400 rebounds in a season.
• Marcus Paige has made 292 3-pointers in his career. He is already #1, but could be the first Tar Heel to hit 300.

Syracuse Starters

Player	Ht	Wt	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TPG	SPG	BPG
Trevor Cooney	6’4”	195	36.3	12.7	2.5	2.4	34.1	34.9	80.6	1.53	1.58	0.17
Malachi Richardson	6’6”	205	34.3	13.3	4.3	2.1	36.4	35.2	72.7	2.14	1.17	0.28
Michael Gbinije	6’7”	200	37.9	17.6	4.1	4.4	46.8	39.9	66.2	2.81	1.97	0.36
Tyler Roberson	6’8”	226	30.8	9.0	8.4	1.4	48.4	0.00	58.8	1.56	0.78	0.67
DaJuan Coleman	6’9”	268	17.5	4.9	4.7	0.4	54.1	0.00	66.2	1.14	0.69	0.86

Syracuse Key Reserves

Player	Ht	Wt	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TPG	SPG	BPG
Tyler Lydon	6’8”	210	30.3	10.2	6.3	1.1	48.4	40.9	78.3	1.28	1.08	1.81
Franklin Howard	6’4”	190	10.6	1.7	1.4	1.8	29.5	11.1	53.8	0.87	0.55	0.13

The Numbers

	North Carolina	Syracuse
KenPom Rank	2	22
Points per game	83.0	70.1
Adj. Offensive Efficiency (Rank)	123.1 (1st)	111.1 (50th)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Rank)	95.3 (22nd)	94.3 (16th)
Tempo (Rank)	71.4 (62nd)	65.7 (319th)
Field Goal%	48.2	42.6
2P FG%	54.1	47.2
3P FG%	32.1	36.1
3PA%	26.8	42.2
FT%	74.7	69.4
FT Rate	33.0%	35.9
RPG	40.7	35.9
Offensive Reb Rate	40.3%	33.4%
Defensive Reb Rate	70.0%	65.1%
APG	17.8	13.7
BPG	4.4	4.4
SPG	6.8	8.1
TPG	10.7	11.9
TO Rate	15.3%	18.2%

2 X-Factors:

1. Carolina’s 3 point shooting. In the first two games against Syracuse, the Tar Heels shot 18.8% and 24.0% from downtown. So far in the NCAA Tournament, the Tar Heels, as a team have shot 38.2% (26-68) on 3-pointers. Though they’ve done a good job getting to the middle of the Syracuse zone this year, if Carolina can hit 3s and extend the zone, this game could get ugly.
2. How do Syracuse’s freshmen handle the Final Four stage? From a Syracuse standpoint, it will be interesting to see how freshmen Malachi Richardson and Tyler Lydon (who have both been playing well) respond to playing in this Final Four atmosphere. Will the lights overwhelm them, or are they too young to know any better? Richardson, while inefficient, has been a big time scorer. Lydon has really come on of late, especially on the defensive end. Although he comes off the bench, Lydon is getting starter’s minutes.

Main Key to the Game:

Though Carolina has been shooting the 3 ball better, the most important piece of this game will be getting Brice Johnson the ball early and often at the free throw line. From there he can take (and make) that 15-footer all day or pick the zone apart. Carolina’s ability (or inability) to get the ball to the middle of the zone most likely determines which of these teams will be playing for the national championship on Monday night.

The Path To Houston, Part 4

Welcome to the 2016 ACC Tournament, Round 2! What a testament to the depth and talent in the conference. On the second day of Elite 8 games, the only four teams in play are all from the ACC: Virginia vs. Syracuse and North Carolina vs. Notre Dame. It’s highly possible that the Tar Heels could repeat the path they took in the semifinals and finals of the ACC Tournament. They play Notre Dame tonight (ACC Tournament semifinals) and, with a win, would most likely play Virginia (ACC Tournament final) in the Final Four next Saturday.

Elite Eight: Notre Dame

• 24-11 (11-7)
• 6th in ACC
• Stat Leaders
  • Points: Demetrius Jackson – 15.5
  • Assists: Demetrius Jackson – 4.7
  • FG%: Zach Auguste – 55.9
  • Rebounds: Zach Auguste – 10.9
  • Steals: Demetrius Jackson – 1.2
  • Blocks: Demetrius Jackson – 1.1
  • Minutes: Steve Vasturia – 36.0

Previous 2015-16 ND / UNC Games

• February 6. UNC @ ND. Notre Dame won 80-76. UNC led by at many as 15 and 9 at the half. The Heels let off the accelerator in the 2^nd half and lost by 4.
• March 11. ACC Tournament semifinal. North Carolina won 78-47. The Heels were locked in defensively and the game was effectively over by halftime. The Tar Heels had a 24-0 run at one point in this game.

Game Notes

• Bonzie Colson has started most of the season for Notre Dame, but Coach Mike Brey has inserted Matt Farrell into the starting lineup throughout the NCAA Tournament. As he says, this gives them “another ball handler on the floor…and that’s kind of helped and taken a little pressure off Demetrius that we have another ball handler on the floor to start a game”. The problem for the Irish is that while this gives them another ball handler, it eliminates their height advantage in the backcourt and doesn’t seem to provide any matchup difficulties for the Tar Heels in the frontcourt.
• While North Carolina has won every tournament game by double digits, Notre Dame has played three very close games. In fact, Notre Dame has been behind in the 2^nd half of every game they’ve played. Michigan last held a lead with 4:32 remaining. Both Stephen F. Austin and Wisconsin held leads with under :30 left.
• This is Notre Dame’s 2^nd straight Elite 8. They lost to Kentucky in the same round last year.
• By the numbers, Notre Dame’s defense is by far the worst of the 4 units in adjusted efficiency. UNC is 2^nd on offense and 16^th on defense. ND is 10^th on offense but 154^th on defense.
• While having a very efficient offense, Notre Dame plays at a much slower pace (318^th in the country) that do the Tar Heels (50^th). It will be interesting to see which team can exert their will.
• There has been a lot of talk from Notre Dame about 2014-15 when Duke beat them handily before Notre Dame got revenge later in the postseason. They are hoping to do the same to North Carolina after the Heels’ 31 point victory a few weeks ago. If I were Roy Williams (and I’m most decidedly not), I would counter by reminding my team of the 2008-09 season. Carolina played Michigan St. in the Big 10/ACC Challenge and won 98-63 (35 point victory). When the teams met again for the National Championship later that season, there was a lot of talk of revenge, but the Heels won 89-72 in a game that never felt that close.

A couple records that might be broken tonight:

• Brice Johnson has 387 rebounds this season. This is 12 shy of tying Tyler Hansbrough for the most by a Tar Heel in one season. Tyler has 399 in 2007-08. Should Brice break the record, he would be the first Tar Heel to have 400 rebounds in a seson.
• Brice also has 22 double-doubles (points and rebounds) on the season. He is tied with Billy Cunningham for the most for a Tar Heel in one season. Cunningham achieved this in 1963-64.

Notre Dame Starters (**Colson usually starts but Farrell has been starting in the NCAA Tournament)

Player	Ht	Wt	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TO/G	SPG	BPG
Demetrius Jackson	6’1”	201	35.9	15.5	3.5	4.7	44.4	32.7	81.5	2.1	1.2	0.3
Matt Farrell**	6’1”	175	12.9	2.4	0.8	1.6	35.0	28.1	88.2	0.6	0.2	0.0
Steve Vasturia	6’5”	212	36.0	11.4	2.6	3.2	43.3	34.6	85.0	1.9	0.8	0.2
V.J. Beachem	6’8”	200	31.1	11.9	3.9	0.8	47.1	44.0	57.1	0.9	0.8	0.8
Zach Auguste	6’10”	245	29.8	14.3	10.9	1.1	55.9	0.0	62.6	2.5	0.7	1.1

Notre Dame Key Reserves

Player	Ht	Wt	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TO/G	SPG	BPG
Bonzie Colson**	6’5”	225	25.2	11.2	6.7	1.0	53.6	33.3	77.0	1.0	0.9	1.0
Matt Ryan	6’8”	217	14.8	5.3	1.7	0.5	41.7	37.4	79.2	0.2	0.3	0.1
Rex Pflueger	6’6”	198	13.6	2.4	1.4	1.1	38.2	32.0	95.2	0.3	0.6	0.2

The Numbers

	North Carolina	Notre Dame
KenPom Rank	4	34
Points per game	82.9	75.1
Adj. Offensive Efficiency (Rank)	121.6 (2nd)	118.2 (10th)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Rank)	94.4 (16th)	102.7 (154th)
Tempo (Rank)	71.9 (50th)	65.7 (318th)
Field Goal%	47.9	47.4
2P FG%	53.7	52.8
3P FG%	32.1	37.1
3PA%	26.8	34.2
FT%	74.4	74.1
FT Rate	32.7%	33.0%
RPG	40.9	35.7
Offensive Reb Rate	40.0%	33.0
Defensive Reb Rate	69.8%	68.3
APG	17.9	13.5
BPG	4.5	4.0
SPG	6.9	5.5
TPG	10.9	10.1
TO Rate	15.4%	15.4%

X-Factor: Notre Dame’s starting lineup change. Can Carolina take advantage of the now even more pronounced frontcourt size advantage before Bonzie Colson comes in off the bench? Justin Jackson (6’8”) will most likely match up with Steve Vasturia (6’5”) – advantage Jackson. Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson (both 6’10”) will, in some form, match up with Zach Auguste (6’10”) and VJ Beachem (6’8”). The Heels need to attack whomever Beachem is guarding. The question for Carolina is whether Meeks will be quick enough to follow either Auguste or Beachem or whether Roy Williams will need to bring in Isaiah Hicks or go small with Theo Pinson. The personnel chess match between Coach Williams and Coach Brey will be interesting and go a long way to determining which of these teams will head to the Final Four next Saturday.

Main Key to the Game: Stop me if this sounds familiar to Friday’s game against Indiana: Stop Demetrius Jackson’s dribble penetration (Friday it was Yogi Ferrell). Staying in front of Jackson (without fouling) is top priority tonight. If other players have to help off, that leaves shooters open outside for 3s and, with the defensive rotations required, also leaves the offensive glass vulnerable.

The Path To Houston, Part 3

As expected, the Tar Heels survived the 1^st weekend in Raleigh. While tested, neither game ever seemed to be in doubt. Indiana presents a new challenge. They can match Carolina’s depth. They also feature strength in some typical areas of weakness for this Tar Heel squad – strong 3-point shooting and offensive rebounding. Here is a primer for what most people are considering the marquee matchup of the Sweet 16.

Sweet Sixteen: Indiana

• 27-7 (15-3)
• 1^st in Big Ten
• Stat Leaders
  • Points: Yogi Ferrell – 17.0
  • Assists: Yogi Ferrell – 5.5
  • FG%: Thomas Bryant – 68.6
  • Rebounds: Troy Williams – 5.9
  • Steals: Troy Williams – 1.2
  • Blocks: Thomas Bryant – 0.9
  • Minutes: Yogi Ferrell – 34.7

Probable Indiana Starters

Player	Height	Weight	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TO/G	SPG	BPG
Yogi Ferrell	6’0”	180	34.7	17.1	3.8	5.6	45.9	41.9	82.5	2.5	1.1	0.0
Nick Zeisloft	6’4”	210	20.1	6.7	1.6	0.9	42.6	42.5	90.5	0.5	0.2	0.1
Troy Williams	6’7”	215	26.0	13.0	5.9	2.0	51.6	31.3	68.8	2.6	1.1	0.8
Collin Hartman	6’7”	215	21.7	4.9	3.1	1.7	44.9	36.4	84.2	1.1	0.8	0.3
Thomas Bryant	6’10”	245	22.4	11.9	5.7	0.9	68.9	35.7	70.2	1.6	0.5	0.9

Key Reserves

Player	Height	Weight	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TO/G	SPG	BPG
Robert Johnson	6’3”	195	24.9	8.1	3.3	3.1	44.9	44.7	63.9	1.7	0.6	0.2
Max Bielfeldt	6’8”	240	17.4	8.0	4.6	0.7	51.7	44.1	69.0	1.1	0.9	0.5
OG Anunoby	6’8”	215	13.6	4.9	2.6	0.5	58.0	44.8	47.6	0.8	0.8	0.8

 

The Numbers

	North Carolina	Indiana
KenPom Rank	3	13
Points per game	82.4	82.5
Adj. Offensive Efficiency (Rank)	120.1 (5th)	118.9 (8th)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Rank)	93.6 (11th)	98.0 (54th)
Tempo (Rank)	72.0 (48th)	69.2 (152nd)
Field Goal%	47.8	50.5
2P FG%	53.8	56.6
3P FG%	31.4	41.6
3PA%	26.6	40.5
FT%	74.2	72.5
FT Rate	32.1%	33.6%
RPG	41.0	36.9
Offensive Reb Rate	39.9%	37.1%
Defensive Reb Rate	70.1%	71.2%
APG	17.8	16.1
BPG	4.5	4.0
SPG	6.9	7.0
TOPG	10.9	13.6
TO Rate	15.4%	19.6%

Indiana Injuries

Much like Carolina, the Hoosiers have a lot of depth on their roster. That depth has taken a hit though. Starter James Blackmon, Jr. was lost for the season before conference play. Typical starter Robert Johnson has been limited recently by a high ankle sprain and missed most of the Kentucky game last weekend. Juwan Morgan has been limited by recurring shoulder problems. Johnson and Morgan’s effectiveness will certainly be a factor this evening.

X-Factor – Thomas Bryant. If he stays on the court, it allows Indiana to have a balanced inside/outside attack. The Heels will need to go at him early and often, as he is prone to fouling, and force him to the bench.

Main Key to the Game – Limit Indiana’s open looks from 3. The Hoosiers will score from outside, but the Heels must channel their ACC Tournament defense and get a hand up on shooters. The key will be staying in front of Ferrell or other penetrating guards so that the other 4 defenders don’t have to help off shooters.

The Path To Houston, Part 2

At this time of year, there is great joy in having the honor of continuing to play basketball. Tonight, The Tar Heels get that honor at least one more time in the 2015-16 season when they take on the Providence Friars in the 2^nd round of the NCAA Tournament.

Providence

• 24-10 (10-8)
• 4^th in Big East

Game Notes:

• These two teams played two years ago in the 1^st Round (although at that point it was called the “2^nd Round” in one of the NCAA’s silliest marketing ploys ever). 79-77 UNC. Providence featured another dynamic point guard named Bryce Cotton who went off for 36 and played the entire game. Here’s to hoping that doesn’t happen again.
• A difference for Providence this year is that there is also a formidable frontcourt player (Ben Bentil) to go along with point guard Kris Dunn (this team’s iteration of Cotton).
• As per the DailyTarHeel.com, Providence is 9-1 this season in games decided by 4 or fewer points. Given the Tar Heels’ penchant for not closing games down the stretch, although they’ve done marvelously in this department during the current 6 game winning streak; Providence’s experience in close games could prove worrisome.
• While Dunn and Bentil are the names to know, Rodney Bullock is the x-factor as the only other player averaging double-digit points for Providence.
• As per usual, the Tar Heels will have a size and depth advantage in the front court. However, Providence will have a height and size advantage in the backcourt.
• On paper, there doesn’t seem to be a Providence player that will slow down Brice Johnson and the UNC front court attack, assuming the back court players will be able to effectively feed the post.

Starting Line-Ups

1. Kris Dunn (6’4”, 220) vs. Marcus Paige (6’2”, 175)
2. Junior Lomomba (6’5”, 205) vs. Joel Berry (6’0”, 195)
3. Jalen Linsey (6’7”, 210) vs. Justin Jackson (6’8”, 200)
4. Ben Bentil (6’9”, 235) vs. Brice Johnson (6’10”, 230)
5. Rodney Bullock (6’8”, 225) vs. Kennedy Meeks (6’10”, 260)

The Numbers (from tarheelblog.com)

	North Carolina	Providence
KenPom Rank	3	47
Points per game	82.3	73.9
Adj. Offensive Efficiency (Rank)	119.5 (6th)	108.0 (92nd)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Rank)	94.1 (15th)	95.8 (27th)
Tempo (Rank)	72.0 (46th)	69.1 (154th)
Field Goal%	47.7%	42.1%
2P FG%	53.6%	47.9%
3P FG%	31.5%	32.3%
FT%	73.8%	72.8%
Offensive Reb Rate	39.7%	30.6%
Defensive Reb Rate	69.9%	70.1%
TO Rate	15.3%	16.1%
3PA%	26.7%	37.0%

Main Key to the game: Stop Dunn. Stop Bentil. Heels win.

The Path To Houston, Part 1

The Path To Houston, Part 1

The path to March Madness glory is rarely paved with chalk. But what if it was? These are the teams the Tar Heels would play:

Round 1: Florida Gulf Coast

• 21-13 (8-6)
• 3^rd in Atlantic-Sun

Round 2: USC

• 21-12 (9-9)
• 6^th in Pac-12

Sweet Sixteen: Kentucky

• 26-8 (13-5)
• 2^nd in SEC

Elite 8: Xavier

• 27-5 (14-4)
• 2^nd in Big East

Final Four: Virginia

• 26-7 (13-5)
• 2^nd in ACC

National Championship: Kansas

• 30-4 (15-3)
• 1^st in Big 12

In the meantime, this is the first (of hopefully 6!) part of The Path To Houston, looking at the teams UNC will play on the road to Houston. First up, Florida Gulf Coast:

• 21-13 (8-6)
• 3^rd in Atlantic-Sun
• Mascot: Eagle
• teamrankings.com gives UNC a 95% chance to win this game
• UNC is favored by 22.
• You might recall that in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, FGCU, as a 15 seed, beat Georgetown (#2) and San Diego State (#7) before losing to Florida (#3) in the Sweet Sixteen. That team was coached by Andy Enfield, who is now at USC, a potential 2^nd round match-up for the winner of this game.
• Interestingly, FGCU averages more possessions a game (73.3), than does UNC (72.4). Should be a fun, fast-paced, up-and-down game. Afterwards, we’ll probably hear Roy say something about the discrepancy in talent between the two teams.
• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
  • FGCU – 102.8 (179^th)
  • UNC – 119.6 (5^th)
• Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
  • FGCU – 103.1 (163^rd)
  • UNC – 93.8 (12^th)
• FGCU strengths
  • Defensive Rebounding
  • Shooting Accuracy
• FGCU weaknesses
  • FT shooting