The Path To Houston, Part 4

Welcome to the 2016 ACC Tournament, Round 2! What a testament to the depth and talent in the conference. On the second day of Elite 8 games, the only four teams in play are all from the ACC: Virginia vs. Syracuse and North Carolina vs. Notre Dame. It’s highly possible that the Tar Heels could repeat the path they took in the semifinals and finals of the ACC Tournament. They play Notre Dame tonight (ACC Tournament semifinals) and, with a win, would most likely play Virginia (ACC Tournament final) in the Final Four next Saturday.

Elite Eight: Notre Dame

• 24-11 (11-7)
• 6th in ACC
• Stat Leaders
  • Points: Demetrius Jackson – 15.5
  • Assists: Demetrius Jackson – 4.7
  • FG%: Zach Auguste – 55.9
  • Rebounds: Zach Auguste – 10.9
  • Steals: Demetrius Jackson – 1.2
  • Blocks: Demetrius Jackson – 1.1
  • Minutes: Steve Vasturia – 36.0

Previous 2015-16 ND / UNC Games

• February 6. UNC @ ND. Notre Dame won 80-76. UNC led by at many as 15 and 9 at the half. The Heels let off the accelerator in the 2^nd half and lost by 4.
• March 11. ACC Tournament semifinal. North Carolina won 78-47. The Heels were locked in defensively and the game was effectively over by halftime. The Tar Heels had a 24-0 run at one point in this game.

Game Notes

• Bonzie Colson has started most of the season for Notre Dame, but Coach Mike Brey has inserted Matt Farrell into the starting lineup throughout the NCAA Tournament. As he says, this gives them “another ball handler on the floor…and that’s kind of helped and taken a little pressure off Demetrius that we have another ball handler on the floor to start a game”. The problem for the Irish is that while this gives them another ball handler, it eliminates their height advantage in the backcourt and doesn’t seem to provide any matchup difficulties for the Tar Heels in the frontcourt.
• While North Carolina has won every tournament game by double digits, Notre Dame has played three very close games. In fact, Notre Dame has been behind in the 2^nd half of every game they’ve played. Michigan last held a lead with 4:32 remaining. Both Stephen F. Austin and Wisconsin held leads with under :30 left.
• This is Notre Dame’s 2^nd straight Elite 8. They lost to Kentucky in the same round last year.
• By the numbers, Notre Dame’s defense is by far the worst of the 4 units in adjusted efficiency. UNC is 2^nd on offense and 16^th on defense. ND is 10^th on offense but 154^th on defense.
• While having a very efficient offense, Notre Dame plays at a much slower pace (318^th in the country) that do the Tar Heels (50^th). It will be interesting to see which team can exert their will.
• There has been a lot of talk from Notre Dame about 2014-15 when Duke beat them handily before Notre Dame got revenge later in the postseason. They are hoping to do the same to North Carolina after the Heels’ 31 point victory a few weeks ago. If I were Roy Williams (and I’m most decidedly not), I would counter by reminding my team of the 2008-09 season. Carolina played Michigan St. in the Big 10/ACC Challenge and won 98-63 (35 point victory). When the teams met again for the National Championship later that season, there was a lot of talk of revenge, but the Heels won 89-72 in a game that never felt that close.

A couple records that might be broken tonight:

• Brice Johnson has 387 rebounds this season. This is 12 shy of tying Tyler Hansbrough for the most by a Tar Heel in one season. Tyler has 399 in 2007-08. Should Brice break the record, he would be the first Tar Heel to have 400 rebounds in a seson.
• Brice also has 22 double-doubles (points and rebounds) on the season. He is tied with Billy Cunningham for the most for a Tar Heel in one season. Cunningham achieved this in 1963-64.

Notre Dame Starters (**Colson usually starts but Farrell has been starting in the NCAA Tournament)

Player	Ht	Wt	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TO/G	SPG	BPG
Demetrius Jackson	6’1”	201	35.9	15.5	3.5	4.7	44.4	32.7	81.5	2.1	1.2	0.3
Matt Farrell**	6’1”	175	12.9	2.4	0.8	1.6	35.0	28.1	88.2	0.6	0.2	0.0
Steve Vasturia	6’5”	212	36.0	11.4	2.6	3.2	43.3	34.6	85.0	1.9	0.8	0.2
V.J. Beachem	6’8”	200	31.1	11.9	3.9	0.8	47.1	44.0	57.1	0.9	0.8	0.8
Zach Auguste	6’10”	245	29.8	14.3	10.9	1.1	55.9	0.0	62.6	2.5	0.7	1.1

Notre Dame Key Reserves

Player	Ht	Wt	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TO/G	SPG	BPG
Bonzie Colson**	6’5”	225	25.2	11.2	6.7	1.0	53.6	33.3	77.0	1.0	0.9	1.0
Matt Ryan	6’8”	217	14.8	5.3	1.7	0.5	41.7	37.4	79.2	0.2	0.3	0.1
Rex Pflueger	6’6”	198	13.6	2.4	1.4	1.1	38.2	32.0	95.2	0.3	0.6	0.2

The Numbers

	North Carolina	Notre Dame
KenPom Rank	4	34
Points per game	82.9	75.1
Adj. Offensive Efficiency (Rank)	121.6 (2nd)	118.2 (10th)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Rank)	94.4 (16th)	102.7 (154th)
Tempo (Rank)	71.9 (50th)	65.7 (318th)
Field Goal%	47.9	47.4
2P FG%	53.7	52.8
3P FG%	32.1	37.1
3PA%	26.8	34.2
FT%	74.4	74.1
FT Rate	32.7%	33.0%
RPG	40.9	35.7
Offensive Reb Rate	40.0%	33.0
Defensive Reb Rate	69.8%	68.3
APG	17.9	13.5
BPG	4.5	4.0
SPG	6.9	5.5
TPG	10.9	10.1
TO Rate	15.4%	15.4%

X-Factor: Notre Dame’s starting lineup change. Can Carolina take advantage of the now even more pronounced frontcourt size advantage before Bonzie Colson comes in off the bench? Justin Jackson (6’8”) will most likely match up with Steve Vasturia (6’5”) – advantage Jackson. Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson (both 6’10”) will, in some form, match up with Zach Auguste (6’10”) and VJ Beachem (6’8”). The Heels need to attack whomever Beachem is guarding. The question for Carolina is whether Meeks will be quick enough to follow either Auguste or Beachem or whether Roy Williams will need to bring in Isaiah Hicks or go small with Theo Pinson. The personnel chess match between Coach Williams and Coach Brey will be interesting and go a long way to determining which of these teams will head to the Final Four next Saturday.

Main Key to the Game: Stop me if this sounds familiar to Friday’s game against Indiana: Stop Demetrius Jackson’s dribble penetration (Friday it was Yogi Ferrell). Staying in front of Jackson (without fouling) is top priority tonight. If other players have to help off, that leaves shooters open outside for 3s and, with the defensive rotations required, also leaves the offensive glass vulnerable.

Quick Hitters – Indiana (NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16)

Quick Hitters from Carolina’s 101-86 victory over Indiana in the Sweet 16:

PHILADELPHIA, PA – MARCH 25: Marcus Paige #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels shoots the ball in the first half against Nick Zeisloft #2 of the Indiana Hoosiers during the 2016 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament East Regional at Wells Fargo Center on March 25, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) 

1. Oh hello there, Marcus Paige, good to see the real you. Paige was 4-4 from 3. BEFORE THE FIRST MEDIA TIMEOUT. Unreal. Marcus finished 6-9 from 3, granted two of those misses were near the end of the game on a possession when the Heels were jacking up shots. Along the way to scoring 21 points tonight, Marcus passed Michael Jordan for 12^th on the UNC career scoring list. Brice Johnson has moved up to 19^th, so this team has 2 players (heck, roommates) who are top 20 in UNC history in career scoring.
2. This game marks the first time the Heels have scored 100 after the first week of the NCAA Tournament.
3. Probably the biggest storyline all week was Indiana’s ability to shoot a high volume and percentage on 3 pointers. They did shoot 41.9% (13-31) for the game, but that was neutralized by Carolina’s 55% (11-20). To be honest, Carolina’s percentage would have been even better were it not for end of game possessions in which Carolina was playing run-the-shot-clock-down-and-shoot-a-3-at-the-buzzer offense.
4. The Tar Heels had 3 turnovers in their final 5 possessions of the 1^st half and 7 total for the half. At least 5 of those turnovers were traveling calls. The Heels cleaned this up and only had 2 turnovers in the entire second half.
5. The story of the first couple minutes of the 1^st half was Marcus Pagie’s shooting. The story in that same time frame of the 2^nd half was Indiana’s fouling. UNC reached the bonus with 16:35 left and eventually the double bonus with 12:52 to go.
6. With 15:20 left in the game, Kennedy Meeks stepped around to poke away an entry pass seemingly leading to a run-out. Yogi Ferrell came up the loose ball before Nate Britt could get to it. At this point there were five players beneath the free throw line – 4 Hoosiers and a Brice Johnson. Ferrell had what looked to be a gimmie layup, but Johnson came flying in from the opposite wing to block the shot (we’ll just skip the part where Troy Williams finished the possession with a 3).
7. Though it probably wouldn’t have helped Indiana overcome so great a deficit, it’s worth noting that Robert Johnson didn’t play at all tonight for the Hoosiers.
8. You might have already realized this, but with the ACC sweep of Friday night (Virginia, Notre Dame, and Syracuse in addition to Carolina), the conference has secured half the spots in the Elite Eight and is also guaranteed 2 teams in the Final Four and 1 team in the National Championship game. Also, with the way things are laid out, it’s highly possible that the Heels will have to replicate the semifinal (Notre Dame) and final (Virginia) of the ACC Tournament in order to reach the National Championship game.
9. Brice Johnson recorded his 22^nd double-double this season. That ties him for the most ever in a season by a Tar Heel with the great Billy Cunningham. Incidentally.
10. Speaking of Brice and records: he now has over 1,000 rebounds for his career (1,006) which only 7 other Tar Heels have done. He also has 387 rebounds this season. Tyler Hansbrough holds the record for the most in one season with 399. There’s a very good chance Brice Johnson could become the first player in program history with 400 rebounds in a season.
11. Tip of the cap to Yogi Ferrell. What a career. An incredible basketball player and leader; a seemingly even better young man.

 

 

 

Factors to Track for UNC/IU (Sweet 16)

Here are some factors to track that will affect the outcome of tonight’s Sweet 16 game:

1. Yogi Ferrell’s penetration.
2. Thomas Bryant foul situation.
3. Effectiveness of Indiana’s injured players.
4. Indiana’s 3 point shooting (both percentage and number made).
5. Which Troy Williams shows up for Indiana?
6. Can North Carolina assert their inside advantage?
7. What kind of start does North Carolina have?
8. North Carolina’s defensive intensity
9. Offensive Rebounding (both teams consider it a strength)

 

The Path To Houston, Part 3

As expected, the Tar Heels survived the 1^st weekend in Raleigh. While tested, neither game ever seemed to be in doubt. Indiana presents a new challenge. They can match Carolina’s depth. They also feature strength in some typical areas of weakness for this Tar Heel squad – strong 3-point shooting and offensive rebounding. Here is a primer for what most people are considering the marquee matchup of the Sweet 16.

Sweet Sixteen: Indiana

• 27-7 (15-3)
• 1^st in Big Ten
• Stat Leaders
  • Points: Yogi Ferrell – 17.0
  • Assists: Yogi Ferrell – 5.5
  • FG%: Thomas Bryant – 68.6
  • Rebounds: Troy Williams – 5.9
  • Steals: Troy Williams – 1.2
  • Blocks: Thomas Bryant – 0.9
  • Minutes: Yogi Ferrell – 34.7

Probable Indiana Starters

Player	Height	Weight	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TO/G	SPG	BPG
Yogi Ferrell	6’0”	180	34.7	17.1	3.8	5.6	45.9	41.9	82.5	2.5	1.1	0.0
Nick Zeisloft	6’4”	210	20.1	6.7	1.6	0.9	42.6	42.5	90.5	0.5	0.2	0.1
Troy Williams	6’7”	215	26.0	13.0	5.9	2.0	51.6	31.3	68.8	2.6	1.1	0.8
Collin Hartman	6’7”	215	21.7	4.9	3.1	1.7	44.9	36.4	84.2	1.1	0.8	0.3
Thomas Bryant	6’10”	245	22.4	11.9	5.7	0.9	68.9	35.7	70.2	1.6	0.5	0.9

Key Reserves

Player	Height	Weight	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3-PT%	FT%	TO/G	SPG	BPG
Robert Johnson	6’3”	195	24.9	8.1	3.3	3.1	44.9	44.7	63.9	1.7	0.6	0.2
Max Bielfeldt	6’8”	240	17.4	8.0	4.6	0.7	51.7	44.1	69.0	1.1	0.9	0.5
OG Anunoby	6’8”	215	13.6	4.9	2.6	0.5	58.0	44.8	47.6	0.8	0.8	0.8

 

The Numbers

	North Carolina	Indiana
KenPom Rank	3	13
Points per game	82.4	82.5
Adj. Offensive Efficiency (Rank)	120.1 (5th)	118.9 (8th)
Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Rank)	93.6 (11th)	98.0 (54th)
Tempo (Rank)	72.0 (48th)	69.2 (152nd)
Field Goal%	47.8	50.5
2P FG%	53.8	56.6
3P FG%	31.4	41.6
3PA%	26.6	40.5
FT%	74.2	72.5
FT Rate	32.1%	33.6%
RPG	41.0	36.9
Offensive Reb Rate	39.9%	37.1%
Defensive Reb Rate	70.1%	71.2%
APG	17.8	16.1
BPG	4.5	4.0
SPG	6.9	7.0
TOPG	10.9	13.6
TO Rate	15.4%	19.6%

Indiana Injuries

Much like Carolina, the Hoosiers have a lot of depth on their roster. That depth has taken a hit though. Starter James Blackmon, Jr. was lost for the season before conference play. Typical starter Robert Johnson has been limited recently by a high ankle sprain and missed most of the Kentucky game last weekend. Juwan Morgan has been limited by recurring shoulder problems. Johnson and Morgan’s effectiveness will certainly be a factor this evening.

X-Factor – Thomas Bryant. If he stays on the court, it allows Indiana to have a balanced inside/outside attack. The Heels will need to go at him early and often, as he is prone to fouling, and force him to the bench.

Main Key to the Game – Limit Indiana’s open looks from 3. The Hoosiers will score from outside, but the Heels must channel their ACC Tournament defense and get a hand up on shooters. The key will be staying in front of Ferrell or other penetrating guards so that the other 4 defenders don’t have to help off shooters.